* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942016 09/24/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 33 36 44 50 50 50 44 36 29 23 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 33 36 44 50 50 50 44 36 29 23 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 28 29 33 35 34 32 29 24 20 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 13 7 6 5 6 9 14 19 22 31 32 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -5 -4 -1 2 -1 0 -2 1 0 3 0 SHEAR DIR 32 31 23 12 334 244 236 214 220 205 207 217 229 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.0 27.6 27.3 27.2 27.0 26.6 25.7 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 151 149 148 142 138 135 134 132 127 119 107 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.0 -52.7 -53.1 -53.4 -52.8 -53.6 -53.1 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 5 4 700-500 MB RH 59 57 57 55 53 51 50 46 44 40 36 33 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 13 13 14 16 19 17 18 16 12 10 7 850 MB ENV VOR 23 17 16 12 0 0 21 14 26 21 12 13 7 200 MB DIV 63 48 59 70 74 79 42 -8 0 20 -8 -5 -5 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -2 -2 -3 0 0 3 3 5 6 9 12 LAND (KM) 1407 1384 1364 1330 1298 1202 1104 973 823 701 616 572 578 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 118.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 5 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 32 33 30 26 23 16 10 8 7 2 8 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 661 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 8.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 20. 24. 27. 29. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 1. -2. -6. -9. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 10. 9. 10. 6. 2. -1. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 11. 19. 25. 25. 25. 19. 11. 4. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.0 118.3 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942016 INVEST 09/24/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.7 40.3 to 144.5 0.82 4.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 28.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.38 2.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.4 38.9 to 2.1 0.45 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.56 3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.50 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 145.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.70 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.1 to -1.7 0.30 -0.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.8 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 23.7% 17.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 6.5% 9.1% 1.5% 0.7% 10.6% 5.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 4.3% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% Consensus: 0.9% 11.5% 9.1% 0.6% 0.2% 3.6% 1.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942016 INVEST 09/24/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##