* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942016 09/24/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 40 49 59 64 64 60 52 41 30 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 40 49 59 64 64 60 52 41 30 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 30 36 42 47 49 47 41 33 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 14 15 14 8 6 2 15 21 23 31 39 46 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -4 -4 -5 -2 0 -4 -2 2 0 3 -1 SHEAR DIR 35 32 35 32 33 18 228 235 212 207 200 211 213 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.1 27.6 26.8 26.6 25.8 24.7 22.8 POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 152 152 152 152 145 140 131 128 120 110 91 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -53.2 -53.1 -52.7 -53.4 -52.7 -53.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.3 -52.6 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 64 62 60 58 57 56 55 52 46 42 38 36 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 12 13 14 15 18 20 21 22 21 17 13 850 MB ENV VOR 32 31 26 18 16 -4 1 32 43 52 50 32 32 200 MB DIV 80 79 66 61 73 77 89 44 18 3 4 11 -1 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 1 0 0 6 4 14 8 LAND (KM) 1466 1469 1466 1454 1411 1301 1090 883 709 592 473 320 151 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.3 12.7 13.0 13.5 14.4 16.0 17.8 19.6 20.7 21.9 23.3 25.6 LONG(DEG W) 117.8 118.3 118.8 119.0 119.0 118.5 117.4 116.5 116.3 116.0 115.7 115.0 114.4 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 4 5 8 10 10 7 6 7 10 12 HEAT CONTENT 25 29 31 30 30 28 19 8 1 5 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 16.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 20. 25. 28. 29. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. -3. -7. -12. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 9. 12. 13. 14. 12. 7. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 15. 24. 34. 39. 39. 35. 27. 16. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.0 117.8 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942016 INVEST 09/24/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.9 40.3 to 144.5 0.83 4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 29.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.38 2.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 38.9 to 2.1 0.73 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.31 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.57 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 111.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.75 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.1 to -1.7 0.65 -0.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 26.9% 17.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 9.1% 7.1% 2.6% 1.4% 12.5% 15.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 11.0% 4.5% 1.3% 0.3% 0.6% 1.3% Consensus: 0.7% 15.7% 9.8% 1.3% 0.6% 4.4% 5.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942016 INVEST 09/24/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##