* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942016 09/23/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 38 46 51 56 56 53 44 35 26 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 38 46 51 56 56 53 44 35 26 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 29 32 36 38 37 35 31 26 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 14 13 11 8 5 10 17 18 25 32 39 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -5 -5 -5 -4 -1 -1 -3 0 0 1 -3 SHEAR DIR 40 45 36 39 35 249 231 219 224 218 223 218 215 SST (C) 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.0 27.2 26.6 26.4 26.2 25.9 24.8 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 150 152 153 154 152 143 134 127 125 124 122 111 91 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -52.7 -52.9 -53.2 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 65 64 63 61 60 56 50 45 41 37 33 33 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 11 11 13 14 16 17 19 16 14 11 850 MB ENV VOR 28 29 27 22 19 26 26 58 56 65 42 43 26 200 MB DIV 91 64 66 53 57 79 55 58 51 35 0 4 15 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -2 -2 -1 -2 0 0 0 2 6 10 15 LAND (KM) 1446 1412 1381 1332 1286 1192 1087 989 904 772 594 422 245 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 117.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 7 8 7 6 4 5 7 9 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 23 27 31 33 29 15 3 1 1 2 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 616 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 6.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 20. 24. 27. 28. 28. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. 0. -3. -8. -12. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 8. 5. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 21. 26. 31. 31. 28. 19. 10. 1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.9 117.3 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942016 INVEST 09/23/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.1 40.3 to 144.5 0.83 4.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 28.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.38 2.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 38.9 to 2.1 0.71 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.36 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.53 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 101.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.76 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.1 to -1.7 0.48 -0.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 26.8% 18.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 8.4% 7.0% 1.9% 0.9% 11.3% 7.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 9.3% 3.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.5% 1.0% Consensus: 0.5% 14.8% 9.3% 0.9% 0.4% 3.9% 2.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942016 INVEST 09/23/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##