* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942016 09/23/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 35 43 48 52 56 54 50 43 34 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 35 43 48 52 56 54 50 43 34 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 27 30 33 36 36 36 34 30 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 18 15 13 12 2 9 12 18 20 27 31 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -5 -6 -6 -3 -4 -3 0 2 2 0 SHEAR DIR 37 42 47 38 40 185 244 217 223 213 215 209 218 SST (C) 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.3 27.6 27.0 26.6 26.3 26.4 25.8 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 149 151 153 153 152 146 138 131 128 126 126 118 112 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.4 -52.8 -53.0 -53.3 -52.9 -53.3 -52.9 -53.2 -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 700-500 MB RH 68 65 64 63 61 59 55 51 44 39 36 34 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 11 11 13 13 15 19 20 20 20 16 850 MB ENV VOR 28 25 26 26 24 21 16 37 49 51 35 57 36 200 MB DIV 110 81 67 57 44 49 58 71 57 33 28 7 19 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -2 -3 -2 0 -1 0 0 0 6 7 9 LAND (KM) 1448 1406 1365 1335 1308 1221 1110 1004 908 751 530 435 438 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 116.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 5 6 9 7 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 22 24 27 32 34 21 10 4 4 5 7 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 2.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 20. 24. 27. 29. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -7. -10. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 5. 8. 12. 13. 13. 12. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 10. 18. 23. 27. 31. 29. 25. 18. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.6 116.8 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942016 INVEST 09/23/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.7 40.3 to 144.5 0.83 3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 27.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.37 2.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.0 38.9 to 2.1 0.51 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.20 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.57 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 91.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.77 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.1 to -1.7 0.37 -0.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 20.6% 14.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 2.2% 2.4% 0.3% 0.1% 3.7% 1.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 4.8% 1.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.7% Consensus: 0.3% 9.2% 6.0% 0.2% 0.1% 1.2% 0.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942016 INVEST 09/23/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##