* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942016 09/23/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 33 36 46 52 58 61 60 55 47 39 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 33 36 46 52 58 61 60 55 47 39 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 24 24 25 28 32 36 39 39 37 32 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 16 16 12 12 6 9 13 17 21 29 28 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 1 -1 -3 -3 -3 -2 0 -2 0 6 3 SHEAR DIR 28 27 38 45 33 20 248 243 207 211 210 217 213 SST (C) 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.5 27.9 27.3 26.7 26.4 26.5 26.4 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 150 152 153 153 153 148 141 135 129 126 127 126 121 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.6 -53.2 -52.6 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -52.7 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 7 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 70 67 65 64 63 59 55 50 45 41 38 37 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 11 12 12 14 15 17 20 20 20 18 14 850 MB ENV VOR 39 29 25 27 28 16 21 21 49 63 70 52 39 200 MB DIV 117 96 77 69 64 56 60 45 69 44 0 6 31 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -1 -2 -1 -1 -1 0 1 3 6 7 2 LAND (KM) 1344 1318 1295 1267 1242 1178 1089 985 882 762 614 471 314 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 115.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 5 5 6 7 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 20 23 25 29 32 28 14 7 7 3 6 5 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 707 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 8.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 20. 25. 27. 29. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -3. -7. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 5. 7. 11. 12. 12. 8. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 11. 21. 27. 33. 36. 35. 30. 22. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.0 115.5 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942016 INVEST 09/23/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.28 2.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.2 40.3 to 144.5 0.83 4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 25.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.34 2.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 38.9 to 2.1 0.82 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.29 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 84.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.65 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 85.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.78 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.1 to -1.7 0.59 -0.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 27.4% 17.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 8.6% 5.7% 2.3% 1.3% 8.5% 12.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 5.3% 2.3% 0.6% 0.3% 0.6% 0.6% Consensus: 0.4% 13.8% 8.5% 1.0% 0.5% 3.0% 4.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942016 INVEST 09/23/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##