* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942016 09/23/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 40 44 54 61 66 69 68 64 62 57 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 40 44 54 61 66 69 68 64 62 57 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 35 40 46 51 54 53 49 46 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 15 18 19 14 9 3 12 18 19 12 16 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 1 0 0 -2 0 0 0 3 5 6 SHEAR DIR 23 23 23 35 45 34 215 258 239 248 254 234 221 SST (C) 28.4 28.6 28.7 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.2 27.7 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.3 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 147 149 150 153 153 151 145 140 137 136 136 136 128 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.2 -53.5 -53.2 -52.6 -53.0 -52.4 -53.0 -52.4 -53.2 -52.1 -52.5 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 4 5 700-500 MB RH 74 71 67 64 65 60 59 55 55 50 51 52 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 13 14 16 17 19 22 24 24 25 23 850 MB ENV VOR 39 38 30 22 23 23 15 4 27 28 52 68 69 200 MB DIV 156 132 117 94 84 60 56 67 67 39 14 -14 -18 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -3 -2 -1 -1 0 -1 0 1 0 0 -1 LAND (KM) 1454 1427 1403 1353 1307 1213 1113 974 838 733 679 547 356 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 115.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 4 4 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 16 18 20 23 27 32 22 10 9 7 4 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 629 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 15.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 13. 18. 22. 24. 26. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 14. 16. 15. 15. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 24. 31. 36. 40. 38. 34. 32. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.0 115.7 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942016 INVEST 09/23/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.5 40.3 to 144.5 0.77 4.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 20.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.27 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 38.9 to 2.1 0.72 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.17 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 116.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.87 2.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 83.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.78 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.1 to -1.7 0.41 -0.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 8.1% 26.5% 17.5% 11.2% 0.0% 16.5% 16.3% Logistic: 1.4% 8.8% 4.9% 2.9% 1.8% 8.2% 15.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 10.0% 3.8% 1.3% 0.3% 1.6% 2.5% Consensus: 3.2% 15.1% 8.7% 5.1% 0.7% 8.7% 11.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942016 INVEST 09/23/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##