* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942016 09/22/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 37 40 43 51 61 67 71 75 74 72 69 V (KT) LAND 30 34 37 40 43 51 61 67 71 75 74 72 69 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 35 39 44 49 55 59 61 61 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 13 14 17 19 13 7 3 5 11 14 13 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 0 0 -4 -3 -3 -3 -1 -4 -2 3 SHEAR DIR 39 29 27 28 33 31 37 238 202 197 224 217 235 SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.8 28.9 29.0 28.6 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 147 148 149 151 152 153 149 143 142 141 138 134 132 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.7 -53.2 -53.5 -53.3 -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -52.3 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 74 73 71 68 65 64 61 58 57 52 47 45 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 14 16 17 19 23 24 26 26 850 MB ENV VOR 34 42 40 32 25 30 21 23 17 33 58 97 78 200 MB DIV 130 146 136 120 101 75 52 46 45 71 49 24 20 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -3 -3 -4 -2 -1 -2 0 1 1 1 7 LAND (KM) 1413 1415 1407 1388 1371 1282 1195 1090 966 813 647 574 567 LAT (DEG N) 10.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 114.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 6 6 6 7 6 5 6 7 6 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 14 16 19 21 23 30 30 21 11 9 4 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 13.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 13. 18. 22. 25. 26. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 6. 9. 13. 15. 16. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 13. 21. 31. 37. 41. 45. 44. 42. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.9 114.8 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942016 INVEST 09/22/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.2 40.3 to 144.5 0.76 3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 18.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.25 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 38.9 to 2.1 0.73 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.16 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 126.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.94 2.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 74.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.80 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.1 to -1.7 0.32 -0.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 8.4% 26.6% 17.5% 11.2% 0.0% 16.3% 15.8% Logistic: 5.1% 18.2% 11.9% 5.4% 3.3% 12.9% 15.1% Bayesian: 0.8% 7.3% 2.6% 0.8% 0.3% 3.4% 2.4% Consensus: 4.8% 17.4% 10.7% 5.8% 1.2% 10.8% 11.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942016 INVEST 09/22/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##