* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942016 09/22/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 39 41 49 58 64 68 73 79 76 74 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 39 41 49 58 64 68 73 79 76 74 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 35 36 38 41 45 48 52 56 59 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 15 11 11 12 6 7 2 1 4 1 8 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 3 4 1 1 -3 -4 -3 -3 -1 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 14 18 354 339 350 15 360 283 246 149 229 210 231 SST (C) 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.6 27.8 27.7 27.8 28.0 27.6 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 144 147 148 151 152 153 151 141 136 140 144 139 128 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.0 -52.6 -53.1 -53.4 -52.6 -53.2 -52.7 -53.1 -52.5 -53.2 -52.1 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 7 6 5 5 6 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 76 74 74 70 67 65 60 58 58 58 58 49 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 14 14 13 14 16 18 19 21 25 25 28 850 MB ENV VOR 25 36 44 41 26 26 29 31 17 25 20 55 67 200 MB DIV 81 105 133 123 114 77 66 41 53 82 83 29 4 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 -2 -3 -2 -1 -1 -2 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1176 1158 1127 1093 1074 987 969 1043 1122 1074 897 709 653 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 11.2 11.8 12.5 13.3 14.9 16.1 16.7 16.4 16.5 17.3 19.1 20.3 LONG(DEG W) 111.3 111.7 112.0 112.3 112.8 114.1 115.8 117.5 118.3 117.7 116.2 115.5 116.4 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 8 10 10 10 7 1 6 10 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 10 10 11 15 26 32 26 13 12 14 10 6 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 671 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 8.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 18. 22. 25. 26. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 3. 6. 8. 10. 13. 17. 16. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 11. 19. 28. 34. 38. 43. 49. 46. 44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.7 111.3 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942016 INVEST 09/22/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 3.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.6 40.3 to 144.5 0.75 3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 14.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.19 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.5 38.9 to 2.1 0.50 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.35 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 111.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.84 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 63.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.81 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.1 to -1.7 0.45 -0.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.8 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 6.5% 23.9% 16.4% 11.5% 0.0% 15.6% 16.4% Logistic: 2.2% 13.0% 9.6% 3.4% 1.8% 13.3% 17.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 9.5% 2.8% 0.5% 0.1% 1.6% 5.3% Consensus: 2.9% 15.5% 9.6% 5.1% 0.6% 10.2% 13.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942016 INVEST 09/22/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##