* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942016 09/22/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 26 28 35 44 53 60 64 67 70 66 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 26 28 35 44 53 60 64 67 70 66 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 21 22 23 25 27 29 30 32 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 17 16 11 12 15 6 7 11 5 3 2 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 4 4 4 0 -1 -2 -3 -2 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 22 19 25 8 340 356 352 293 246 218 221 14 228 SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.7 27.7 26.8 27.6 28.3 27.9 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 144 146 147 150 151 153 152 142 133 139 147 145 138 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -52.7 -53.1 -53.0 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 8 7 5 5 5 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 76 75 74 74 72 68 63 55 49 49 56 59 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 11 11 12 13 14 17 19 22 23 25 24 850 MB ENV VOR 16 20 31 35 37 21 33 32 54 46 34 25 42 200 MB DIV 72 72 100 112 98 70 55 45 54 69 109 69 47 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1195 1183 1165 1135 1093 1030 941 967 1092 1297 1385 1222 859 LAT (DEG N) 10.3 10.7 11.2 11.8 12.6 14.2 15.8 17.2 17.7 17.1 15.8 15.9 18.3 LONG(DEG W) 111.0 111.4 111.8 112.1 112.4 113.4 114.9 117.0 119.6 121.7 121.5 119.2 116.8 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 8 8 10 11 13 12 8 8 15 17 HEAT CONTENT 14 13 12 13 18 41 33 14 9 12 16 15 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 662 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 2.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 14. 22. 28. 31. 33. 34. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 2. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 16. 17. 18. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 15. 24. 33. 40. 44. 47. 50. 46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.3 111.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942016 INVEST 09/22/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.4 40.3 to 144.5 0.84 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 14.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.18 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.5 38.9 to 2.1 0.39 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.27 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 90.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.70 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 34.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.85 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.1 to -1.7 0.49 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 3.1% 2.4% 0.4% 0.2% 2.9% 5.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 2.7% Consensus: 0.2% 1.4% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 1.0% 2.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942016 INVEST 09/22/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##