* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942016 09/21/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 31 35 38 42 45 48 50 49 46 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 31 35 38 42 45 48 50 49 46 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 26 26 26 26 27 28 29 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 14 13 17 21 22 27 26 26 22 14 18 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 4 4 2 2 0 -2 -5 -3 -1 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 62 71 73 66 63 57 52 63 69 61 9 294 270 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.8 28.1 28.6 28.9 28.6 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 145 144 142 140 137 140 145 152 156 152 145 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.1 -53.4 -53.8 -53.7 -53.5 -53.6 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 6 7 5 700-500 MB RH 72 73 72 71 68 67 62 58 56 61 68 65 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 9 23 27 32 38 22 24 17 10 -14 24 51 200 MB DIV 50 46 80 82 77 121 95 83 89 81 49 76 43 700-850 TADV 5 6 7 7 6 4 1 0 -3 -6 0 2 11 LAND (KM) 1531 1586 1657 1729 1808 1902 1942 1890 1731 1483 1145 770 501 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.2 10.0 9.7 9.3 8.8 8.5 8.8 9.8 11.4 13.7 16.7 19.6 LONG(DEG W) 115.6 116.8 117.8 118.6 119.3 120.1 120.3 119.9 118.8 117.1 114.9 113.3 113.3 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 9 8 6 4 0 5 9 14 17 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 15 15 15 14 14 17 17 16 14 21 37 25 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 480 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 13. 19. 24. 27. 30. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -7. -10. -13. -13. -12. -10. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 11. 14. 16. 17. 17. 14. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 10. 13. 17. 20. 23. 25. 24. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.2 115.6 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942016 INVEST 09/21/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.8 40.3 to 144.5 0.76 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 14.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.19 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 38.9 to 2.1 0.58 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.19 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.53 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 51.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.83 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.1 to -1.7 0.50 -0.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.0% 11.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 2.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942016 INVEST 09/21/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##