* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942016 09/21/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 37 42 48 51 54 56 58 57 53 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 37 42 48 51 54 56 58 57 53 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 30 31 32 33 33 33 34 35 37 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 12 12 13 18 21 24 28 27 23 13 14 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 3 5 4 3 0 -1 -3 -3 -1 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 58 60 67 66 59 62 55 61 62 65 17 300 263 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.4 29.0 28.7 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 147 145 143 141 139 140 143 150 157 154 143 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.5 -53.0 -53.4 -53.7 -53.1 -53.7 -53.1 -53.5 -53.1 -53.6 -52.9 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 7 7 7 6 5 700-500 MB RH 73 73 74 72 71 69 66 59 57 61 65 66 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -11 0 8 21 27 35 34 23 24 12 -12 5 29 200 MB DIV 77 69 69 92 94 113 112 93 83 98 62 63 51 700-850 TADV 4 5 6 7 7 6 2 0 -2 -5 -1 1 2 LAND (KM) 1436 1520 1596 1672 1745 1866 1930 1914 1816 1591 1269 901 682 LAT (DEG N) 10.3 10.4 10.2 9.9 9.6 9.0 8.7 8.8 9.4 10.8 13.0 16.1 18.8 LONG(DEG W) 114.5 115.8 117.0 117.9 118.7 119.8 120.4 120.3 119.6 118.0 116.0 114.7 114.9 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 9 8 5 2 3 7 13 16 15 13 HEAT CONTENT 16 16 15 14 14 16 18 18 15 18 29 30 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 461 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 3.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 19. 24. 27. 30. 31. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -4. -8. -10. -11. -10. -8. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 11. 14. 16. 17. 17. 15. 12. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 17. 23. 26. 29. 31. 33. 32. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.3 114.5 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942016 INVEST 09/21/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 3.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.4 40.3 to 144.5 0.78 3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 15.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.20 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 38.9 to 2.1 0.57 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.36 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.62 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 45.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.84 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.1 to -1.7 0.31 -0.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 23.1% 15.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 9.6% 2.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.8% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942016 INVEST 09/21/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##