* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942016 09/21/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 31 40 48 55 59 64 69 72 73 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 31 40 48 55 59 64 69 72 73 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 22 24 26 28 30 34 38 43 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 11 13 11 16 12 16 17 13 8 2 0 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 2 1 1 0 0 -1 0 -1 -2 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 16 354 352 355 3 24 30 22 38 33 47 69 269 SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.9 28.9 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 144 145 145 146 149 149 149 148 147 148 152 153 153 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -52.8 -53.4 -53.0 -53.7 -53.0 -53.5 -53.2 -53.8 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 7 8 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 72 73 75 76 76 75 71 66 64 60 58 60 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 9 10 10 10 11 10 11 13 13 13 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -9 0 11 25 33 50 46 37 28 13 -5 -14 200 MB DIV 76 85 84 98 115 102 106 102 85 72 41 41 69 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 -1 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 1059 1090 1118 1146 1182 1296 1386 1437 1469 1446 1375 1259 1116 LAT (DEG N) 9.9 10.1 10.4 10.7 11.0 11.3 11.5 11.5 11.6 11.9 12.3 12.7 13.3 LONG(DEG W) 108.0 108.9 109.8 110.8 111.8 113.7 115.3 116.4 117.2 117.3 116.7 115.2 113.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 10 10 8 7 4 2 2 6 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 15 16 16 13 12 20 22 24 25 26 28 29 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 636 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 8.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 22. 28. 31. 34. 35. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. -2. -1. 1. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5. 4. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 20. 28. 35. 39. 44. 49. 52. 53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 9.9 108.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942016 INVEST 09/21/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.8 40.3 to 144.5 0.82 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 14.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.19 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 38.9 to 2.1 0.64 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.51 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.70 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 32.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.86 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.1 to -1.7 0.22 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 16.6% 12.6% 5.5% 3.1% 14.0% 19.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 6.5% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.5% 1.2% Consensus: 0.7% 7.7% 4.7% 2.0% 1.0% 4.8% 6.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942016 INVEST 09/21/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##