* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942016 08/12/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 27 35 41 49 56 61 63 64 62 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 27 35 41 49 56 61 63 64 62 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 21 21 24 27 32 37 44 51 57 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 8 7 7 7 4 4 4 4 4 9 4 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 0 -1 -3 -2 -5 -4 -6 -5 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 40 50 51 52 47 70 9 84 57 85 13 14 329 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.1 28.8 28.3 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 153 152 153 155 156 153 148 145 148 150 153 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.3 -53.6 -53.3 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.2 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 66 68 70 68 66 65 63 64 62 61 58 54 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -39 -31 -21 -22 -19 -10 -6 3 5 1 -11 -19 -26 200 MB DIV 38 39 34 35 22 29 6 12 38 51 35 21 -17 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 1 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 1 2 LAND (KM) 2310 2373 2447 2408 2293 2081 1858 1640 1426 1232 1054 891 729 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.7 12.8 12.9 13.0 13.0 12.9 12.8 12.8 12.8 12.9 13.0 13.1 LONG(DEG W) 130.0 131.1 132.2 133.3 134.4 136.5 138.8 141.1 143.4 145.6 147.7 149.9 152.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 11 11 13 HEAT CONTENT 19 22 28 36 43 40 31 26 28 30 49 46 47 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 3.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 6. 14. 22. 28. 32. 34. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -12. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 15. 21. 29. 36. 41. 43. 44. 42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.5 130.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942016 INVEST 08/12/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.5 40.3 to 144.5 0.88 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 29.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.39 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 38.9 to 2.1 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.62 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.30 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 74.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.80 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.1 to -1.7 0.34 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 1.5 81.4 to 0.0 0.98 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942016 INVEST 08/12/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##