* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942016 08/12/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 29 33 42 52 59 65 67 69 70 70 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 29 33 42 52 59 65 67 69 70 70 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 21 23 24 27 32 38 42 47 51 55 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 8 7 4 5 6 3 4 2 7 4 8 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -3 -2 -3 -4 -4 -2 -3 -5 -5 -5 -3 SHEAR DIR 61 69 82 83 51 48 360 15 330 23 27 24 11 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.1 28.8 28.4 28.1 28.2 28.5 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 152 151 152 154 156 153 149 145 147 150 153 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 -53.5 -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.3 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 61 62 64 64 64 64 63 65 66 64 64 58 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR -24 -20 -20 -12 -16 -15 -15 -6 -1 2 -4 -17 -25 200 MB DIV 54 41 44 43 37 23 9 7 44 52 28 19 -6 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 1 LAND (KM) 2390 2448 2453 2357 2252 2057 1863 1659 1469 1266 1085 917 760 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.6 12.8 12.9 13.0 13.1 13.0 12.8 12.7 12.8 12.9 13.0 13.0 LONG(DEG W) 131.0 132.0 132.9 133.8 134.8 136.7 138.7 140.9 143.0 145.2 147.3 149.5 152.0 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 9 9 11 10 11 10 11 11 13 HEAT CONTENT 20 26 33 40 44 39 31 26 28 30 46 45 52 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 521 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 7.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 6. 14. 22. 28. 32. 34. 35. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 22. 32. 39. 45. 47. 49. 50. 50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.4 131.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942016 INVEST 08/12/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.2 40.3 to 144.5 0.88 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 32.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.43 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 38.9 to 2.1 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.70 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.37 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 90.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.77 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.1 to -1.7 0.24 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.2% 17.4% 17.0% 4.5% 2.2% 20.1% 14.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% Consensus: 1.1% 6.3% 5.8% 1.5% 0.7% 6.7% 4.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942016 INVEST 08/12/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##