* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942016 08/12/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 22 24 27 32 36 40 40 41 40 38 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 22 24 27 32 36 40 40 41 40 38 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 19 19 19 18 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 6 6 5 3 3 1 3 2 7 5 6 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 1 1 1 4 2 0 1 -1 -1 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 56 41 24 33 48 5 81 306 360 284 304 293 323 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.5 26.7 26.8 27.6 27.4 26.6 26.3 26.1 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 141 142 142 142 140 131 132 141 138 130 126 124 121 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 2 3 3 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 59 60 59 57 57 54 51 48 44 41 37 36 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -56 -43 -36 -36 -35 -25 -13 -2 -1 12 12 16 19 200 MB DIV 35 33 31 19 28 33 54 28 6 14 28 20 4 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 1 2 4 6 8 7 9 5 2 0 LAND (KM) 1499 1544 1604 1677 1737 1882 2044 2208 1962 1735 1521 1329 1162 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.7 16.1 16.4 16.7 17.2 17.6 17.8 18.1 18.6 19.1 19.6 19.9 LONG(DEG W) 122.5 123.5 124.6 125.7 126.9 129.3 131.6 133.9 136.2 138.3 140.3 142.1 143.7 STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 11 11 12 12 11 11 10 10 9 9 7 HEAT CONTENT 9 12 21 15 9 2 7 15 14 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 2.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 21. 26. 30. 32. 32. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 16. 20. 20. 21. 20. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 15.3 122.5 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942016 INVEST 08/12/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.1 40.3 to 144.5 0.78 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 13.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.17 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.7 38.9 to 2.1 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.73 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.27 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 104.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.76 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.1 to -1.7 0.49 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942016 INVEST 08/12/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##