* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942016 08/11/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 23 24 26 28 30 33 35 36 35 33 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 23 24 26 28 30 33 35 36 35 33 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 19 18 18 17 17 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 9 5 5 4 3 7 1 6 1 6 3 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 1 0 4 3 6 1 3 0 2 0 SHEAR DIR 59 59 45 12 5 345 4 292 6 6 340 51 3 SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.6 27.7 27.2 26.6 27.3 27.5 26.8 26.3 26.2 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 139 140 141 141 142 137 130 137 139 131 126 125 124 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.5 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 700-500 MB RH 56 57 58 57 56 56 52 50 44 42 38 37 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -59 -59 -53 -46 -38 -34 -27 -13 -10 6 10 26 15 200 MB DIV 15 25 26 26 23 30 13 8 14 19 16 21 0 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 -1 0 3 6 9 8 4 5 2 -1 LAND (KM) 1452 1476 1528 1587 1660 1795 1965 2135 2088 1873 1680 1510 1352 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.4 15.7 16.1 16.4 16.9 17.4 17.8 18.1 18.5 18.9 19.2 19.3 LONG(DEG W) 121.5 122.3 123.3 124.4 125.5 127.9 130.5 132.8 135.0 137.0 138.8 140.4 141.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 11 11 11 12 12 11 10 9 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 13 9 11 21 16 8 7 6 16 4 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 674 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 4.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 21. 26. 30. 32. 32. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -11. -11. -12. -13. -14. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 8. 10. 13. 15. 16. 15. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 15.0 121.5 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942016 INVEST 08/11/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.6 40.3 to 144.5 0.77 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 14.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.18 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 38.9 to 2.1 0.76 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.66 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.23 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 107.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.75 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.1 to -1.7 0.42 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942016 INVEST 08/11/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##