* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942016 08/11/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 18 18 18 20 23 25 29 31 32 31 30 V (KT) LAND 20 19 18 18 18 20 23 25 29 31 32 31 30 V (KT) LGEM 20 18 17 16 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 15 13 13 10 3 6 3 7 7 12 11 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 3 3 4 4 1 6 3 5 4 5 1 SHEAR DIR 77 72 65 58 75 31 94 74 99 90 89 82 83 SST (C) 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.3 27.4 26.8 25.9 25.9 26.9 27.3 27.0 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 140 138 137 139 132 122 122 132 137 133 132 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 49 51 53 53 52 51 47 47 43 41 39 39 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 2 2 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -58 -57 -66 -65 -57 -46 -40 -35 -20 0 11 25 27 200 MB DIV 26 29 14 22 35 15 13 19 29 19 20 11 23 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 3 4 3 0 0 -1 LAND (KM) 1383 1393 1401 1414 1436 1553 1641 1788 1944 2127 2074 1886 1709 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.7 15.2 15.8 16.4 17.3 18.1 18.4 18.6 18.5 18.4 18.3 18.2 LONG(DEG W) 119.5 120.2 121.0 121.9 122.8 125.0 127.1 129.2 131.2 133.2 135.1 136.9 138.6 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 10 11 11 12 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 27 22 14 9 8 4 10 0 0 13 15 7 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 679 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 21. 25. 29. 31. 32. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 3. 5. 9. 11. 12. 11. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 14.3 119.5 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942016 INVEST 08/11/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.28 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.0 40.3 to 144.5 0.76 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 16.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.9 38.9 to 2.1 0.30 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.32 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.25 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 121.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.73 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.1 to -1.7 0.15 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 6.0 81.4 to 0.0 0.93 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 0.9% 1.8% 0.2% 0.1% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 0.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942016 INVEST 08/11/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##