* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942016 08/10/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 27 29 32 35 38 39 41 39 37 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 27 29 32 35 38 39 41 39 37 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 24 24 24 24 23 23 22 21 19 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 19 17 16 14 11 7 5 3 4 7 13 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 1 0 2 1 1 6 6 5 5 6 SHEAR DIR 83 76 74 69 61 63 30 81 3 57 59 91 96 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.6 27.1 26.2 26.3 26.6 25.9 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 143 142 141 139 141 135 126 127 130 122 119 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -53.0 -53.2 -52.9 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 48 49 51 53 55 56 55 51 52 47 45 40 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -60 -61 -59 -58 -67 -61 -56 -44 -29 -20 -13 -6 -3 200 MB DIV 20 18 26 17 11 35 23 34 13 37 26 11 17 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 -2 -1 0 0 0 3 6 6 4 4 LAND (KM) 1361 1372 1384 1397 1409 1467 1585 1688 1839 2012 2172 1958 1768 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 13.8 14.1 14.4 14.8 15.7 16.5 17.4 17.9 18.5 19.0 19.5 19.8 LONG(DEG W) 118.4 118.8 119.3 119.8 120.6 122.5 124.7 127.0 129.4 131.9 134.1 136.1 137.9 STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 6 7 9 11 12 11 12 11 10 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 32 33 30 26 18 7 12 13 1 0 8 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 692 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 13. 19. 24. 26. 28. 28. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -6. -6. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 14. 16. 14. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.6 118.4 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942016 INVEST 08/10/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.9 40.3 to 144.5 0.75 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 27.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.37 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.0 38.9 to 2.1 0.27 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.09 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 150.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.69 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.1 to -1.7 0.09 -0.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 7.1 81.4 to 0.0 0.91 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 9.2% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942016 INVEST 08/10/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##