* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942016 07/02/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 32 37 43 53 68 82 96 103 108 109 104 V (KT) LAND 25 27 32 37 43 53 68 82 96 103 108 109 104 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 28 30 33 41 51 63 77 90 97 97 89 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -6 -7 -6 -2 0 -2 1 0 -3 -2 0 2 SHEAR DIR 79 74 78 100 95 60 55 47 80 81 107 71 62 SST (C) 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.2 28.6 28.9 28.7 28.4 27.7 26.8 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 163 162 163 163 162 157 151 154 152 149 141 131 123 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -51.8 -51.5 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 8 8 7 8 7 6 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 79 76 76 75 71 71 74 73 71 70 68 65 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 13 14 16 17 20 24 30 34 39 41 42 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -9 -6 -7 -7 -7 -2 9 14 31 45 71 79 200 MB DIV 89 98 81 48 34 26 70 91 102 82 48 70 71 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 2 5 0 0 -4 -6 -6 -6 -2 -2 LAND (KM) 894 909 929 950 969 1071 1210 1283 1404 1507 1592 1678 1784 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 9 10 11 12 11 11 11 10 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 42 42 38 34 34 31 21 29 48 23 19 20 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 637 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 13.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 6. 13. 21. 26. 29. 31. 32. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 17. 25. 31. 35. 36. 33. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 18. 28. 43. 57. 71. 79. 83. 84. 79. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.7 106.3 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942016 INVEST 07/02/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.6 40.3 to 144.5 0.93 5.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 38.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.50 3.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 38.9 to 2.1 0.49 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.62 3.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.55 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 45.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.84 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.1 to -1.7 0.22 -0.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.3 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 29.7% 21.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.8% 24.4% 16.5% 4.8% 2.3% 17.4% 9.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 9.3% 4.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.6% 0.9% Consensus: 1.0% 21.1% 14.1% 1.8% 0.8% 6.0% 3.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942016 INVEST 07/02/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##