* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942016 07/02/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 37 43 57 70 84 97 105 110 110 103 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 37 43 57 70 84 97 105 110 110 103 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 28 30 34 43 54 67 82 94 103 100 87 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 3 8 8 8 9 8 9 5 8 6 8 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -6 -5 -5 -2 -3 0 0 -3 1 3 -1 SHEAR DIR 106 53 63 80 91 67 72 48 98 77 99 77 62 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.2 28.6 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.2 27.0 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 163 163 162 163 163 158 151 154 152 151 146 134 122 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -52.3 -52.8 -51.9 -52.1 -51.7 -51.9 -50.9 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 8 8 7 7 8 7 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 82 79 77 76 73 69 72 73 71 69 65 65 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 13 14 16 18 20 24 29 34 39 41 40 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -10 -11 -7 -10 -16 -11 3 14 32 41 60 74 200 MB DIV 81 70 87 74 46 40 41 77 94 85 41 94 30 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 0 1 1 0 -3 -2 -4 -5 -2 -3 LAND (KM) 879 878 890 896 922 1016 1186 1297 1418 1503 1574 1638 1743 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 10.9 11.2 11.6 12.1 12.8 13.0 13.0 13.1 13.7 14.3 15.3 16.2 LONG(DEG W) 105.7 106.4 107.2 108.0 109.2 111.6 114.2 116.5 118.6 120.5 122.4 124.3 126.4 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 11 12 13 12 11 9 10 10 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 40 43 41 35 32 35 20 32 49 30 14 20 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 616 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 18.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 6. 13. 21. 26. 29. 31. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. 6. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 13. 18. 26. 32. 36. 36. 31. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 12. 18. 32. 45. 59. 72. 80. 85. 85. 78. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.6 105.7 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942016 INVEST 07/02/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 3.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.9 40.3 to 144.5 0.94 5.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 38.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.50 3.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 38.9 to 2.1 0.52 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.74 4.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.56 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 37.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.85 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.1 to -1.7 0.33 -0.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 2.5 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 31.8% 23.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.4% 36.1% 27.7% 9.9% 5.3% 30.0% 12.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 11.7% 4.0% 0.9% 0.4% 0.6% 2.0% Consensus: 1.5% 26.5% 18.3% 3.6% 1.9% 10.2% 4.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942016 INVEST 07/02/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##