* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942016 07/02/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 33 40 46 60 70 84 92 100 105 102 98 V (KT) LAND 25 28 33 40 46 60 70 84 92 100 105 102 98 V (KT) LGEM 25 28 31 34 38 48 60 72 81 91 98 96 89 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 11 16 16 12 9 5 10 11 12 8 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -6 -6 -6 -6 -4 0 0 0 -4 -2 3 -4 SHEAR DIR 89 74 63 71 77 62 31 60 88 63 70 97 79 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.2 28.3 28.0 28.5 28.7 27.2 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 162 163 162 161 160 161 158 151 147 149 149 138 123 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -52.9 -52.6 -52.9 -52.6 -52.3 -52.3 -51.8 -52.0 -51.8 -51.6 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 7 5 5 700-500 MB RH 79 78 74 73 72 70 70 72 70 67 64 65 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 12 13 14 15 18 20 25 28 34 38 39 41 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -14 -13 -14 -11 -14 -13 -4 17 39 38 43 80 200 MB DIV 48 43 64 80 63 47 54 84 64 25 46 67 86 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -1 0 0 1 -2 -5 -2 -3 -5 -5 -3 LAND (KM) 918 935 961 988 1005 1005 993 1051 1283 1561 1648 1614 1783 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 10.9 11.1 11.2 11.3 11.7 13.0 14.5 14.8 13.9 13.6 15.2 16.4 LONG(DEG W) 106.6 107.5 108.3 108.9 109.3 110.0 111.5 114.6 118.7 121.7 122.6 123.9 127.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 7 5 4 7 13 19 19 10 5 15 18 HEAT CONTENT 41 39 35 35 36 38 34 18 50 17 21 20 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 18.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 6. 13. 21. 26. 29. 31. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 14. 14. 13. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 10. 13. 20. 24. 32. 36. 34. 33. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 15. 21. 35. 46. 59. 67. 75. 80. 77. 73. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.6 106.6 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942016 INVEST 07/02/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 3.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.5 40.3 to 144.5 0.92 5.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 37.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.49 3.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 38.9 to 2.1 0.70 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.34 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.48 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 54.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.83 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.1 to -1.7 0.39 -0.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 2.4 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 30.9% 21.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.7% 12.9% 11.8% 2.3% 1.2% 15.4% 5.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 30.2% 23.6% 4.6% 2.2% 1.1% 9.9% Consensus: 1.6% 24.6% 18.9% 2.3% 1.1% 5.5% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942016 INVEST 07/02/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##