* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942016 07/01/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 24 27 32 43 54 65 74 80 87 91 94 V (KT) LAND 20 21 24 27 32 43 54 65 74 80 87 91 94 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 23 27 33 40 47 56 66 78 89 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 11 11 10 14 14 14 12 12 11 18 16 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -7 -5 -5 -6 -4 0 -1 1 -2 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 105 91 68 68 73 81 81 71 49 62 67 63 64 SST (C) 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.4 28.7 29.0 29.1 29.5 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 161 162 162 163 162 162 162 159 153 156 157 159 153 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.3 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 8 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 83 82 82 80 77 74 70 68 69 70 64 59 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 10 10 11 12 13 15 18 21 24 28 33 850 MB ENV VOR 5 -3 -11 -18 -19 -18 -19 -25 -18 -12 6 10 17 200 MB DIV 33 39 39 37 49 63 46 25 39 61 76 68 52 700-850 TADV 0 0 -3 -3 -2 0 1 0 -3 -2 -4 -6 -5 LAND (KM) 923 907 893 888 905 939 1005 1096 1248 1359 1567 1721 1770 LAT (DEG N) 9.9 10.2 10.5 10.8 11.0 11.4 11.7 12.0 12.4 12.7 12.5 12.2 12.9 LONG(DEG W) 104.9 105.3 105.8 106.4 107.1 108.4 110.0 111.8 114.2 117.1 120.0 121.8 123.5 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 7 7 6 9 10 13 15 12 7 10 HEAT CONTENT 32 37 40 43 41 34 38 35 23 38 38 34 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 4.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 5. 14. 22. 29. 33. 35. 36. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 14. 15. 17. 17. 16. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 13. 17. 20. 23. 26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 12. 23. 35. 45. 54. 60. 67. 71. 74. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 9.9 104.9 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942016 INVEST 07/01/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 142.0 40.3 to 144.5 0.98 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 38.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.51 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 38.9 to 2.1 0.50 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.41 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.34 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 16.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.88 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.1 to -1.7 0.52 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 11.5% 7.9% 1.8% 0.8% 9.3% 4.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 6.0% 3.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% Consensus: 0.7% 5.9% 3.6% 0.7% 0.3% 3.2% 1.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942016 INVEST 07/01/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##