* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942016 07/01/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 26 31 41 51 60 66 71 78 84 85 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 26 31 41 51 60 66 71 78 84 85 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 21 22 25 30 35 41 47 56 66 74 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 11 12 13 12 14 15 13 13 12 12 18 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -2 -7 -7 -5 -6 -1 -1 0 1 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 102 97 83 70 65 84 93 86 76 63 61 63 60 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.6 29.1 29.0 29.2 29.2 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 162 162 162 162 163 161 156 155 157 156 160 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.1 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -52.5 -53.0 -52.1 -53.0 -52.3 -52.8 -52.1 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 85 84 83 82 80 75 71 67 68 71 70 67 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 9 9 10 10 11 12 13 15 18 22 27 29 850 MB ENV VOR 4 9 1 -3 -7 -15 -22 -24 -19 -6 0 7 22 200 MB DIV 55 36 40 40 47 75 52 42 20 25 56 118 71 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 -2 0 0 1 0 0 -2 -3 -3 LAND (KM) 935 933 918 900 889 887 941 1027 1187 1345 1501 1599 1673 LAT (DEG N) 9.6 9.8 10.1 10.4 10.7 11.4 11.8 12.0 11.9 11.9 11.5 11.5 12.1 LONG(DEG W) 104.5 104.9 105.3 105.7 106.2 107.5 109.0 110.8 112.9 115.3 117.6 119.2 121.0 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 6 7 9 9 11 12 10 8 10 HEAT CONTENT 29 33 37 40 41 39 32 35 26 28 48 52 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 499 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 7.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 5. 14. 22. 29. 33. 35. 37. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 14. 15. 16. 16. 16. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 14. 19. 23. 24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. 0. 0. -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 11. 21. 31. 40. 46. 51. 58. 64. 65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 9.6 104.5 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942016 INVEST 07/01/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 141.7 40.3 to 144.5 0.97 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 36.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.47 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 38.9 to 2.1 0.73 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.40 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.37 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 8.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.89 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.1 to -1.7 0.32 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.8% 12.9% 10.4% 1.7% 0.8% 14.0% 1.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 12.4% 5.4% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 8.4% 5.3% 0.8% 0.4% 4.7% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942016 INVEST 07/01/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##