* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942016 07/01/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 24 28 34 39 51 64 74 80 79 79 78 73 V (KT) LAND 20 24 28 34 39 51 64 74 80 79 79 78 73 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 23 25 27 34 42 51 60 67 71 70 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 7 12 15 20 20 15 10 9 12 11 9 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -3 -5 -9 -9 -5 -2 0 0 1 1 4 SHEAR DIR 95 96 87 81 75 87 87 86 47 34 14 13 333 SST (C) 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.5 29.1 28.0 26.6 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 162 163 161 160 159 160 162 162 161 157 146 133 116 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -52.6 -53.0 -52.3 -53.0 -52.1 -52.5 -52.1 -52.5 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 5 3 700-500 MB RH 83 82 83 81 81 80 77 74 71 72 68 67 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 9 10 11 11 12 13 13 14 13 14 15 13 850 MB ENV VOR 4 5 5 11 8 9 1 4 -11 -21 -13 9 -3 200 MB DIV 85 87 82 66 57 65 127 104 67 10 21 2 11 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 -2 -2 0 2 2 -1 -2 0 0 -2 LAND (KM) 934 939 949 953 951 914 854 787 744 801 819 921 1108 LAT (DEG N) 9.3 9.7 9.9 10.0 10.1 10.5 11.1 12.1 13.5 14.8 16.3 17.6 18.7 LONG(DEG W) 103.8 104.8 105.6 106.0 106.2 106.3 106.3 106.9 108.4 110.8 113.5 116.8 120.8 STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 6 3 2 2 5 8 12 14 16 18 21 HEAT CONTENT 24 32 38 41 41 41 42 44 26 22 13 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 510 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 26.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. 0. 5. 14. 22. 29. 33. 35. 36. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. 12. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 9. 9. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 14. 19. 31. 44. 54. 60. 59. 59. 58. 53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 9.3 103.8 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942016 INVEST 07/01/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 141.1 40.3 to 144.5 0.97 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 35.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.46 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 38.9 to 2.1 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.43 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.59 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 11.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.89 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.1 to -1.7 0.66 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 22.9% 38.1% 42.6% 17.9% 11.8% 38.8% 35.9% Bayesian: 1.9% 13.7% 6.6% 1.6% 0.4% 4.1% 13.2% Consensus: 8.2% 17.3% 16.4% 6.5% 4.1% 14.3% 16.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942016 INVEST 07/01/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##