* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942016 06/30/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 25 31 38 50 64 76 88 91 93 93 94 V (KT) LAND 20 21 25 31 38 50 64 76 88 91 93 93 94 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 23 25 31 40 52 66 79 87 89 92 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 3 7 13 18 22 20 11 7 7 11 10 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -5 -8 -9 -8 -1 0 6 3 5 4 SHEAR DIR 275 44 81 87 84 80 76 63 52 51 63 67 44 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.5 29.1 27.6 27.3 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 164 163 162 161 159 158 160 163 163 160 144 140 151 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.4 -53.0 -53.3 -53.0 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.4 -51.7 -51.9 -52.0 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 6 7 8 700-500 MB RH 82 81 82 82 81 81 79 78 73 72 68 69 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 9 10 12 13 16 17 20 22 24 25 28 850 MB ENV VOR -3 0 0 -2 2 1 13 0 -7 -19 7 48 66 200 MB DIV 65 76 87 79 59 53 110 150 128 53 28 -4 59 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 -1 -1 -1 2 1 0 -7 -7 -4 -6 LAND (KM) 929 946 960 970 986 984 953 848 712 743 891 1234 1544 LAT (DEG N) 9.0 9.4 9.7 9.8 9.8 9.9 10.0 10.9 13.0 15.4 16.4 15.7 13.8 LONG(DEG W) 103.0 104.3 105.3 105.9 106.3 106.5 106.0 105.7 107.1 110.6 115.0 119.1 121.3 STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 8 5 3 1 4 8 17 22 21 18 12 HEAT CONTENT 22 27 36 40 41 41 41 41 43 25 7 24 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 663 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 13.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 5. 14. 22. 29. 33. 35. 36. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 13. 18. 20. 21. 22. 23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 5. 11. 18. 30. 44. 56. 68. 71. 73. 73. 74. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 9.0 103.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942016 INVEST 06/30/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 141.6 40.3 to 144.5 0.97 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 33.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.44 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 38.9 to 2.1 0.58 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.54 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.58 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 9.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.89 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.1 to -1.7 0.56 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.3% 20.2% 17.8% 5.2% 2.6% 12.9% 9.3% Bayesian: 0.2% 6.7% 2.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.5% 3.4% Consensus: 2.2% 9.0% 6.7% 1.8% 0.9% 4.5% 4.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942016 INVEST 06/30/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##