* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912019 10/21/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 35 36 37 39 41 42 44 44 44 43 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 35 36 37 39 41 42 44 44 44 43 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 36 37 39 39 37 34 32 29 26 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 4 2 4 8 11 17 17 15 11 13 22 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 1 0 0 0 0 2 2 2 6 6 4 SHEAR DIR 138 121 65 344 321 306 291 292 281 271 253 261 259 SST (C) 27.6 27.8 27.8 28.2 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.8 28.9 28.7 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 140 142 142 146 150 149 149 150 149 152 154 151 151 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.1 -53.8 -53.7 -53.9 -53.7 -53.7 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -54.0 -53.9 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 45 46 49 50 49 52 54 57 59 61 65 63 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 2 850 MB ENV VOR 30 32 29 23 12 6 -2 -14 -26 -21 -36 -50 -55 200 MB DIV -8 5 18 13 14 -13 14 49 68 55 32 27 37 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 0 -1 -1 0 3 2 LAND (KM) 2015 1938 1862 1796 1717 1548 1394 1235 1104 1015 945 863 804 LAT (DEG N) 8.8 8.8 8.8 8.7 8.7 8.8 8.9 9.2 9.6 9.9 10.4 11.4 12.5 LONG(DEG W) 139.7 140.6 141.5 142.4 143.4 145.6 147.8 150.0 152.0 154.0 156.0 157.7 159.1 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 11 10 10 10 10 8 HEAT CONTENT 26 27 26 26 26 27 29 28 25 24 24 23 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 21. 25. 28. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -3. -4. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 11. 12. 14. 14. 14. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 8.8 139.7 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912019 INVEST 10/21/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.67 3.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 19.6 to 1.6 0.80 5.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.22 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.23 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.43 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 187.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.69 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.25 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.9% 21.7% 16.2% 15.6% 0.0% 18.0% 16.4% 9.9% Logistic: 4.7% 16.0% 11.5% 5.3% 1.4% 1.9% 3.0% 26.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 4.9% 12.9% 9.3% 7.0% 0.5% 6.6% 6.5% 12.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912019 INVEST 10/21/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##