* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912019 09/17/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 39 43 50 55 60 64 64 64 63 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 39 43 50 55 60 64 64 64 63 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 32 33 33 34 37 40 43 46 47 47 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 20 19 17 18 20 23 18 20 21 28 24 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 0 -2 -3 0 -5 -2 2 0 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 55 60 53 51 54 54 60 62 63 71 90 94 92 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.5 28.9 29.2 29.1 28.5 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 142 143 143 145 148 153 156 154 146 145 146 147 148 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -52.6 -53.1 -52.4 -53.2 -52.2 -52.6 -51.9 -52.3 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 1 2 2 2 2 3 4 4 5 5 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 86 88 87 85 85 83 80 77 74 71 72 71 72 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 11 12 12 11 15 15 15 17 18 20 21 850 MB ENV VOR 4 16 19 22 19 15 8 12 12 34 55 54 65 200 MB DIV 97 128 134 131 120 97 142 99 77 96 105 106 99 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -4 -6 -6 -7 -8 -6 -1 2 7 12 4 LAND (KM) 1004 1015 1053 1077 1087 1057 977 902 806 741 691 689 707 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.3 10.2 10.3 10.6 11.6 13.3 14.8 15.9 16.5 17.0 17.2 17.4 LONG(DEG W) 107.5 107.9 108.4 109.0 109.6 110.7 111.6 112.0 112.0 112.0 112.1 112.6 113.4 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 6 6 9 9 7 4 3 2 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 12 13 15 19 25 31 26 19 12 12 12 13 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 682 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 25. 28. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 13. 20. 25. 30. 34. 34. 34. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.2 107.5 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912019 INVEST 09/17/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.68 3.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.9 19.6 to 1.6 0.04 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 122.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.82 4.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.14 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.51 2.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 11.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.89 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.71 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 18.6% 16.9% 12.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 3.7% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.5% 0.8% 2.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Consensus: 2.1% 7.4% 5.9% 4.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.9% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912019 INVEST 09/17/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##