* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912019 09/16/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 34 37 39 42 49 57 60 62 61 61 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 34 37 39 42 49 57 60 62 61 61 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 32 32 33 33 35 36 37 39 39 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 20 23 25 22 24 25 17 17 25 30 26 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -4 -3 -2 0 0 0 -1 2 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 58 56 62 67 55 49 38 52 37 57 69 82 70 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.6 29.1 29.3 29.2 29.0 29.0 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 141 141 142 145 150 154 155 154 152 151 152 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.7 -53.1 -53.5 -53.4 -53.2 -53.1 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 -52.5 -52.2 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 4 4 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 86 86 88 87 85 85 81 79 75 71 70 71 72 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 8 10 10 11 12 14 14 15 15 15 850 MB ENV VOR -6 0 10 9 8 9 0 -12 -4 5 39 48 53 200 MB DIV 78 91 108 101 108 99 103 121 105 98 111 125 115 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -2 -1 -5 -8 -10 -4 -3 -2 0 7 -2 LAND (KM) 1033 1059 1097 1138 1167 1191 1132 1024 949 868 785 731 680 LAT (DEG N) 9.9 9.9 9.8 9.6 9.6 10.0 11.2 12.8 13.9 14.7 15.4 15.7 16.5 LONG(DEG W) 107.5 108.0 108.5 108.9 109.4 110.4 111.3 111.7 111.8 111.5 111.1 110.7 110.7 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 6 8 7 5 4 4 2 5 HEAT CONTENT 11 12 13 14 16 20 24 26 24 20 16 15 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 21. 25. 28. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -11. -14. -16. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. 11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 4. 7. 9. 12. 19. 27. 30. 32. 31. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 9.9 107.5 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912019 INVEST 09/16/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.65 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.3 19.6 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 97.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.69 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 9.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.90 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.74 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.4% 16.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 3.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 2.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 6.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 4.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912019 INVEST 09/16/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##