* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912019 09/16/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 33 36 40 44 50 53 58 61 63 64 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 33 36 40 44 50 53 58 61 63 64 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 29 30 31 31 31 30 30 30 32 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 17 20 20 23 21 17 25 22 25 25 31 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -2 -3 -5 -3 0 0 0 1 2 1 0 SHEAR DIR 74 72 66 65 64 50 24 33 33 35 53 76 79 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.2 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 144 143 142 142 145 151 153 154 155 156 155 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.0 -52.8 -53.2 -53.6 -52.9 -53.4 -52.7 -53.3 -52.3 -52.9 -52.0 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 1 1 2 2 3 3 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 85 85 86 88 88 87 84 82 78 75 70 73 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 11 10 12 13 14 15 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -5 -1 4 12 18 9 -4 -6 -3 24 49 47 200 MB DIV 69 80 102 97 108 113 105 138 88 129 100 112 110 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -3 -2 -4 -8 -8 -2 -3 -2 2 7 LAND (KM) 974 1023 1075 1133 1191 1265 1269 1208 1125 1033 948 830 722 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.4 10.2 9.9 9.6 9.4 9.9 11.1 12.3 13.3 13.8 14.3 14.9 LONG(DEG W) 107.5 108.2 108.8 109.3 109.8 110.7 111.6 112.3 112.5 112.3 111.7 110.7 109.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 6 5 4 6 7 6 4 4 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 13 15 17 17 18 18 13 17 24 27 25 22 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 526 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 31. 33. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -6. -9. -11. -14. -16. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 5. 6. 8. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 11. 15. 19. 25. 28. 33. 36. 38. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.5 107.5 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912019 INVEST 09/16/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.72 3.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.8 19.6 to 1.6 0.04 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.66 3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.13 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 2.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -3.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.91 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.72 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.5% 14.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 6.4% 1.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.8% 4.9% 14.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Consensus: 0.3% 7.7% 5.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 1.6% 4.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 4.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912019 INVEST 09/16/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##