* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912019 09/16/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 30 35 39 44 48 54 56 63 65 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 30 35 39 44 48 54 56 63 65 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 26 26 25 25 25 26 29 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 17 19 23 25 25 24 29 31 26 23 22 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -2 -5 -5 0 0 0 -5 -2 0 5 3 SHEAR DIR 79 70 66 58 63 51 28 33 38 30 32 54 60 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.1 28.1 28.5 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.9 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 147 145 145 142 143 149 154 151 150 152 153 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -52.8 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 -52.5 -52.4 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 3 4 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 83 86 85 86 87 85 85 80 79 75 73 75 77 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 9 9 12 12 13 13 15 16 21 22 850 MB ENV VOR -2 -10 -1 6 7 19 22 13 3 5 19 48 55 200 MB DIV 79 68 82 86 99 115 118 130 113 114 124 106 84 700-850 TADV 0 1 -1 -3 -4 -5 -8 -12 -11 -5 -5 -1 2 LAND (KM) 938 983 1025 1082 1132 1220 1249 1168 1029 885 745 615 558 LAT (DEG N) 10.4 10.3 10.2 9.9 9.6 9.1 9.3 10.6 12.3 13.7 14.8 15.8 16.9 LONG(DEG W) 106.6 107.3 107.9 108.4 108.8 109.5 110.3 111.0 111.2 110.8 110.1 109.4 109.6 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 5 5 4 5 8 8 7 6 5 7 HEAT CONTENT 14 15 17 17 18 18 20 25 30 23 16 18 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 28. 31. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -9. -13. -16. -18. -19. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. 11. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 5. 9. 9. 15. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 14. 19. 23. 29. 31. 38. 40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.4 106.6 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912019 INVEST 09/16/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.74 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.6 19.6 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 82.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.61 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.13 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.44 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -0.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.91 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.79 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 10.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 1.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.6% 3.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 4.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 1.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912019 INVEST 09/16/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##