* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912019 08/03/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 22 21 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 24 22 21 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 22 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 23 17 22 21 21 21 19 19 14 16 17 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 6 8 4 2 5 0 -3 -1 1 1 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 296 296 286 282 289 283 281 278 288 267 256 261 270 SST (C) 28.3 28.1 27.7 27.4 27.2 26.9 26.4 26.0 25.7 25.7 25.8 26.0 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 147 145 140 136 134 131 125 121 117 116 118 120 122 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.1 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -53.3 -53.6 -53.8 -54.2 -54.7 -54.5 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 4 5 4 4 3 4 3 3 3 2 700-500 MB RH 62 59 61 60 59 58 56 50 46 43 38 33 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 3 3 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR 5 2 2 2 -11 -9 -29 -22 -42 -46 -49 -51 -31 200 MB DIV 0 18 31 29 4 -2 -13 -7 -26 -8 -29 -31 -22 700-850 TADV 1 2 0 0 1 3 2 3 3 1 1 1 2 LAND (KM) 1423 1434 1437 1444 1468 1494 1496 1489 1519 1559 1605 1652 1731 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.3 15.8 16.1 16.3 17.1 17.9 18.6 18.9 19.0 18.8 18.7 18.4 LONG(DEG W) 120.8 121.6 122.2 122.6 123.1 124.1 124.9 125.6 126.3 126.9 127.3 127.8 128.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 6 5 6 6 5 4 3 2 3 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 14 14 9 6 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 687 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 25. 26. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -5. -9. -12. -13. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -13. -14. -15. -16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.8 120.8 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912019 INVEST 08/03/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.69 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.0 19.6 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.26 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.34 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 134.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.75 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 20.7 62.3 to 0.0 0.67 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912019 INVEST 08/03/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##