* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912019 08/02/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 24 23 22 20 19 17 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 24 23 22 20 19 17 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 23 22 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 16 20 20 22 26 18 26 22 17 16 21 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 3 3 4 2 4 -1 -3 0 -1 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 241 253 265 279 280 285 280 287 300 299 270 271 222 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.0 27.9 27.5 27.2 26.7 26.2 26.0 25.9 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 150 151 150 148 144 143 138 135 129 124 121 120 117 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.8 -54.0 -53.9 -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -54.0 -54.0 -54.2 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 7 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 76 73 71 67 65 64 62 60 56 55 47 44 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 10 11 10 10 8 7 6 5 3 2 1 850 MB ENV VOR 1 6 4 0 0 -5 -20 -31 -30 -40 -36 -41 -46 200 MB DIV 97 108 84 51 12 -3 3 -33 -33 10 -5 -6 2 700-850 TADV 2 0 0 -1 0 0 1 2 0 -1 2 4 3 LAND (KM) 1322 1343 1375 1392 1394 1407 1436 1487 1540 1568 1619 1683 1727 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.3 12.6 13.1 13.8 14.9 15.9 16.6 17.3 17.8 18.2 18.5 18.8 LONG(DEG W) 115.0 116.1 117.2 118.2 119.1 120.7 122.3 123.6 124.8 125.8 126.9 128.0 128.8 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 10 10 8 7 6 6 5 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 24 25 18 13 11 11 8 4 2 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 650 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 26. 28. 29. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -5. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -11. -11. -12. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -11. -10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.0 115.0 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912019 INVEST 08/02/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.76 4.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 19.6 to 1.6 0.10 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.55 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.15 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 2.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 89.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.47 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.6% 14.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 3.1% 1.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.9% 1.6% 3.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 6.4% 5.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.5% 1.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912019 INVEST 08/02/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##