* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912019 05/29/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 27 30 34 38 41 44 45 48 49 V (KT) LAND 25 25 23 25 26 26 31 35 30 32 34 30 28 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 23 25 26 26 29 28 26 30 31 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 5 1 8 13 15 18 14 20 13 16 10 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 -1 -1 0 0 -2 -2 1 0 1 0 SHEAR DIR 340 22 282 279 327 349 338 314 287 244 219 189 162 SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.7 28.0 28.5 28.6 29.5 29.2 28.1 27.4 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 147 148 148 148 150 143 148 150 160 157 146 138 135 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -52.5 -52.0 -52.6 -52.2 -52.1 -52.0 -52.0 -51.9 -51.9 -52.0 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 8 8 7 9 7 9 9 10 10 10 8 700-500 MB RH 83 82 82 82 80 78 76 72 71 69 69 71 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 6 5 6 6 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 76 81 82 83 75 70 88 64 93 91 92 117 128 200 MB DIV 88 122 136 106 104 68 64 43 56 85 54 65 55 700-850 TADV -3 -4 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 4 6 4 LAND (KM) 103 33 -37 -107 -170 -62 71 61 -131 74 100 -70 -148 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.5 13.0 13.5 14.0 15.2 16.4 17.8 19.0 19.6 19.2 18.4 17.6 LONG(DEG W) 88.0 87.7 87.3 86.9 86.6 86.3 86.4 87.4 89.2 91.4 93.9 96.3 98.3 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 10 11 11 13 11 9 HEAT CONTENT 11 13 15 17 4 15 23 22 4 23 10 4 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 6 CX,CY: 2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 24. 28. 31. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. -1. -3. -5. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 13. 16. 19. 20. 23. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.9 88.0 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912019 INVEST 05/29/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.76 4.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 19.6 to 1.6 0.71 4.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 111.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.76 3.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.09 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.33 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 17.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.89 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.47 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 24.7% 17.2% 0.0% 0.0% 17.7% 17.8% 0.0% Logistic: 5.4% 37.2% 22.6% 12.2% 4.7% 20.3% 25.0% 9.3% Bayesian: 0.6% 4.7% 3.5% 0.9% 0.1% 0.8% 0.6% 1.3% Consensus: 2.0% 22.2% 14.5% 4.4% 1.6% 12.9% 14.5% 3.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912019 INVEST 05/29/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##