* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912019 05/29/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 26 28 31 34 38 42 44 46 48 50 V (KT) LAND 25 26 23 25 25 26 31 35 29 32 34 29 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 22 24 25 26 29 29 27 30 31 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 5 1 1 9 14 15 16 20 9 15 9 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 0 0 0 1 -2 -4 -1 -1 -3 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 255 282 319 247 284 351 323 316 267 244 200 180 137 SST (C) 28.3 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.7 28.4 28.6 28.8 29.9 29.2 27.7 27.4 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 146 148 148 148 149 147 149 152 164 157 141 138 142 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.9 -53.1 -52.4 -52.0 -53.0 -51.9 -52.5 -51.5 -52.3 -51.7 -52.3 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 8 8 7 8 8 10 8 11 8 10 700-500 MB RH 84 83 81 82 81 79 79 76 75 75 76 76 75 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 6 6 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 66 78 87 88 91 71 82 78 84 112 108 115 131 200 MB DIV 95 116 140 148 120 82 70 61 57 52 84 43 65 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -3 -1 0 -3 1 0 1 0 7 6 4 LAND (KM) 135 64 -14 -77 -132 -78 60 21 -124 44 33 -131 -124 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 12.2 12.9 13.4 13.9 15.0 16.3 17.5 18.6 19.0 18.6 17.6 17.0 LONG(DEG W) 88.1 87.8 87.5 87.2 87.0 86.8 87.0 88.0 89.7 91.8 93.8 95.7 97.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 6 5 7 7 9 11 9 10 9 7 HEAT CONTENT 10 12 14 19 12 18 23 24 5 22 7 3 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 7 CX,CY: 2/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 24. 28. 31. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 13. 17. 19. 21. 23. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.6 88.1 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912019 INVEST 05/29/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.76 5.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.6 19.6 to 1.6 0.83 7.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 123.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.83 5.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 3.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 4.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.90 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.34 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 28.5% 26.3% 0.0% 0.0% 22.2% 21.7% 0.0% Logistic: 4.9% 46.2% 32.5% 19.6% 6.2% 39.7% 41.6% 18.4% Bayesian: 0.3% 5.7% 6.4% 1.4% 0.1% 1.3% 2.4% 2.7% Consensus: 1.7% 26.8% 21.7% 7.0% 2.1% 21.1% 21.9% 7.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912019 INVEST 05/29/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##