* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912019 05/28/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 30 32 36 40 45 47 48 49 49 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 28 26 26 27 33 32 28 33 34 28 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 23 26 26 29 26 27 31 32 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 1 2 2 3 16 11 17 12 15 10 18 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 3 0 0 -1 1 1 -2 -2 2 2 0 2 SHEAR DIR 256 24 344 49 300 343 349 342 306 278 242 220 206 SST (C) 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.4 28.7 28.3 28.7 29.1 29.9 28.4 28.3 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 143 145 147 148 147 150 146 150 156 165 150 148 135 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.5 -53.0 -53.2 -52.5 -52.5 -52.1 -52.1 -52.0 -52.0 -52.0 -51.9 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 6 8 7 8 8 10 10 11 10 10 700-500 MB RH 82 84 83 81 83 81 78 74 68 67 67 68 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 59 65 75 82 91 81 69 75 61 88 81 87 82 200 MB DIV 99 102 115 124 120 91 72 51 37 43 46 54 49 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -3 -5 -1 -3 -2 1 0 1 0 4 2 LAND (KM) 237 174 103 25 -45 -155 -35 74 -42 -20 139 42 -206 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 11.3 11.9 12.5 13.0 14.0 15.4 16.5 17.9 19.0 19.7 19.8 19.9 LONG(DEG W) 88.5 88.3 88.0 87.6 87.2 86.8 86.7 87.2 88.6 90.7 93.3 96.0 98.8 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 7 6 6 7 7 11 12 13 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 10 10 11 12 15 6 19 23 27 36 13 9 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 24. 28. 31. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 15. 20. 22. 23. 24. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.7 88.5 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912019 INVEST 05/28/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.74 5.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.5 19.6 to 1.6 0.95 8.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 112.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.77 5.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.09 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 3.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 0.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.91 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.07 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 28.3% 26.7% 0.0% 0.0% 22.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 21.2% 14.1% 6.3% 1.0% 17.5% 16.6% 10.5% Bayesian: 0.1% 2.3% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.5% Consensus: 0.6% 17.2% 14.0% 2.2% 0.4% 13.1% 5.6% 3.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912019 INVEST 05/28/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##