* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912019 05/28/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 22 21 21 23 27 31 34 36 39 41 V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 22 21 25 26 32 30 31 33 37 31 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 23 22 25 26 29 25 26 29 30 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 6 7 6 3 11 14 20 26 18 15 20 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -1 -1 0 0 4 -4 -6 6 3 1 3 SHEAR DIR 241 219 213 229 244 281 337 311 319 277 257 225 228 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.7 28.3 28.7 29.1 29.7 28.4 28.3 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 145 146 147 149 146 151 156 163 150 148 141 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.8 -52.5 -53.0 -53.1 -52.0 -52.6 -51.8 -52.0 -51.3 -52.2 -51.7 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 8 7 6 8 7 9 9 11 9 13 9 700-500 MB RH 82 81 82 82 81 82 79 76 69 67 66 64 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 61 66 66 76 83 89 67 71 63 70 88 65 71 200 MB DIV 97 98 85 94 107 93 66 62 61 50 44 65 40 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -2 -3 0 -3 2 4 6 -6 4 2 LAND (KM) 237 159 96 26 -37 -162 -69 70 -53 19 260 126 -108 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 11.2 11.7 12.2 12.8 13.9 15.1 16.5 18.0 19.6 20.8 21.3 21.4 LONG(DEG W) 88.3 88.0 87.7 87.3 87.1 86.6 86.7 87.3 88.7 90.8 93.4 96.0 98.7 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 6 6 6 5 7 8 12 13 13 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 11 9 10 11 13 4 18 23 28 35 19 13 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 5 CX,CY: 1/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 32.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 24. 28. 31. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 4. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. 2. 6. 9. 11. 14. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.5 88.3 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912019 INVEST 05/28/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.73 3.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.4 19.6 to 1.6 0.79 4.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 96.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.68 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.08 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 32.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.15 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 7.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.90 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.25 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 19.5% 15.0% 0.0% 0.0% 17.8% 17.5% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 8.5% 4.7% 1.6% 0.4% 6.8% 14.8% 9.6% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.9% 0.9% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% Consensus: 0.3% 9.6% 6.9% 0.7% 0.1% 8.2% 10.8% 3.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912019 INVEST 05/28/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##