* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912019 05/28/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 29 31 34 38 42 47 48 48 48 48 V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 29 31 34 28 27 27 30 30 27 30 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 27 26 26 27 30 29 26 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 4 4 5 5 2 9 15 12 22 20 17 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -3 -4 -6 -6 0 0 2 3 0 -1 2 6 SHEAR DIR 318 27 78 121 138 327 301 5 336 351 321 296 248 SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.5 27.9 28.2 28.5 30.0 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 140 142 146 147 146 146 147 148 141 146 150 167 148 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.0 -53.3 -52.7 -52.4 -53.0 -51.8 -52.6 -51.9 -52.3 -51.3 -52.1 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 7 7 6 8 7 7 7 9 8 11 700-500 MB RH 78 79 82 82 84 84 85 82 80 71 67 65 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 7 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 65 55 54 53 61 68 76 73 79 68 68 78 62 200 MB DIV 121 100 104 114 110 138 113 77 66 50 49 36 34 700-850 TADV 0 0 -2 -2 -1 -4 0 -5 0 2 1 -7 15 LAND (KM) 355 330 274 209 156 14 -119 -215 -94 45 84 -117 156 LAT (DEG N) 9.0 9.1 9.5 10.0 10.5 11.5 12.7 13.9 15.0 16.2 17.6 19.0 20.0 LONG(DEG W) 88.9 88.7 88.3 87.8 87.3 86.4 85.9 85.5 85.5 86.0 87.3 89.6 92.5 STM SPEED (KT) 2 4 6 7 7 6 6 6 6 8 11 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 10 11 14 16 13 12 15 4 8 22 21 6 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):160/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 30. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 3. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 17. 22. 23. 23. 23. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.0 88.9 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912019 INVEST 05/28/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.72 5.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 19.6 to 1.6 0.82 7.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 109.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.75 5.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 3.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 6.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.90 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.86 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 38% is 6.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 29.2% 26.0% 0.0% 0.0% 24.0% 37.9% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 22.1% 13.1% 6.2% 2.8% 31.2% 41.6% 25.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% Consensus: 0.6% 17.2% 13.2% 2.1% 0.9% 18.4% 26.6% 8.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912019 INVEST 05/28/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##