* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912019 05/27/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 27 28 31 33 37 41 44 45 46 47 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 27 28 26 27 27 27 27 31 28 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 24 24 25 26 26 27 27 30 31 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 2 6 7 6 3 9 18 15 12 18 26 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -3 -7 -8 -4 -4 0 2 3 -1 -2 2 SHEAR DIR 240 210 192 166 173 271 286 336 27 351 315 300 286 SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.7 29.2 29.1 28.7 28.3 28.4 28.8 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 145 147 148 147 146 150 155 154 149 146 148 154 165 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.6 -52.9 -53.2 -52.6 -52.7 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.2 -51.9 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 9 9 11 700-500 MB RH 78 79 79 81 82 83 83 82 80 73 65 64 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 8 7 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 68 65 66 69 69 80 78 79 91 70 62 81 59 200 MB DIV 116 117 72 90 79 92 113 84 41 32 35 58 63 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 -2 -1 -1 -1 -2 0 5 1 -3 LAND (KM) 243 184 132 81 23 -124 -108 -76 -55 -6 130 -2 -53 LAT (DEG N) 9.5 9.7 10.1 10.6 11.1 12.0 13.1 14.0 15.0 15.8 17.0 18.5 20.0 LONG(DEG W) 88.0 87.5 87.1 86.6 86.1 85.1 84.5 84.2 84.2 84.6 85.7 87.6 90.0 STM SPEED (KT) 2 5 6 7 7 6 5 5 5 6 10 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 17 21 18 13 13 27 8 25 25 19 24 26 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):170/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 625 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 24. 28. 31. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 12. 16. 19. 20. 21. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.5 88.0 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912019 INVEST 05/27/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.75 5.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.3 19.6 to 1.6 0.80 6.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 94.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.68 4.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.13 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 3.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 10.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.90 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.0 2.2 to -1.9 1.00 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 32% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 27.7% 25.0% 0.0% 0.0% 22.7% 32.0% 0.0% Logistic: 9.5% 52.4% 36.3% 20.4% 12.3% 41.5% 64.5% 37.3% Bayesian: 1.1% 7.1% 6.1% 1.0% 0.1% 7.9% 22.4% 13.5% Consensus: 3.5% 29.1% 22.5% 7.1% 4.1% 24.1% 39.7% 16.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912019 INVEST 05/27/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##