* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912019 05/27/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 24 26 30 36 42 47 49 50 50 51 V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 24 26 30 28 27 27 27 31 28 30 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 23 23 23 23 26 26 27 30 27 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 3 3 5 4 5 2 9 20 13 16 22 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 3 0 -2 -4 -3 6 4 4 0 0 6 SHEAR DIR 266 222 222 168 127 115 118 332 360 357 333 296 284 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.1 27.7 28.2 29.0 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 140 139 142 143 146 148 148 149 144 140 146 156 160 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.7 -52.4 -52.8 -53.1 -52.4 -53.1 -52.1 -52.6 -51.8 -52.5 -51.5 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 6 6 7 6 8 7 7 7 10 9 700-500 MB RH 75 76 78 78 80 83 83 83 80 77 68 65 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 56 60 61 67 66 83 80 90 72 77 71 71 70 200 MB DIV 105 117 119 84 94 103 121 124 66 42 38 41 34 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 -1 0 -2 0 2 0 -5 LAND (KM) 364 375 348 308 246 82 -73 -205 -140 -6 149 -35 41 LAT (DEG N) 9.3 9.3 9.5 9.9 10.3 11.4 12.5 13.5 14.6 15.8 17.1 18.6 20.1 LONG(DEG W) 89.1 89.2 89.0 88.7 88.2 87.2 86.3 85.6 85.3 85.4 86.4 88.3 90.9 STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 4 6 7 7 6 6 6 6 10 13 15 HEAT CONTENT 10 9 10 11 12 12 16 14 4 12 20 27 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):235/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 678 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 6. 6. 4. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. 1. 5. 11. 17. 22. 24. 25. 25. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.3 89.1 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912019 INVEST 05/27/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.71 4.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.9 19.6 to 1.6 0.87 7.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 103.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.72 4.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.53 3.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 22.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.50 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 25.1% 24.3% 0.0% 0.0% 21.9% 23.9% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 13.1% 8.3% 3.4% 0.4% 13.4% 30.3% 21.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.5% Consensus: 0.5% 13.2% 11.1% 1.2% 0.1% 11.8% 18.1% 7.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912019 INVEST 05/27/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##