* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912019 05/27/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 25 25 27 27 32 35 37 37 39 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 25 23 25 26 27 30 32 29 31 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 25 25 21 25 26 27 30 30 28 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 8 14 14 11 13 4 7 16 13 22 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 4 3 2 0 -5 -5 1 4 0 -2 0 2 SHEAR DIR 239 223 205 194 199 208 211 242 313 360 310 313 279 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.5 29.0 28.3 27.8 28.2 29.0 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 145 146 148 148 147 153 146 141 146 156 157 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -53.1 -53.2 -52.7 -52.5 -53.0 -52.1 -52.7 -51.8 -52.8 -52.0 -52.5 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 7 8 6 8 6 7 6 9 9 12 700-500 MB RH 73 76 76 77 79 80 80 82 82 77 72 67 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 63 71 75 70 73 66 77 96 91 76 78 79 76 200 MB DIV 97 100 88 105 111 91 88 121 90 51 52 46 58 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -1 0 -1 -1 -3 -1 -3 -1 -4 1 LAND (KM) 242 241 219 169 107 -17 -142 -162 -120 15 160 -39 62 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.1 10.3 10.6 11.0 11.7 12.6 13.6 14.8 16.0 17.2 18.5 19.7 LONG(DEG W) 88.1 88.1 87.9 87.5 87.1 86.2 85.5 85.0 84.9 85.3 86.4 88.5 91.2 STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 4 5 6 6 5 6 6 7 9 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 14 13 13 13 12 14 27 4 4 14 20 27 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):235/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 24. 27. 30. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -11. -11. -11. -10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 7. 10. 12. 12. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.0 88.1 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912019 INVEST 05/27/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.73 4.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 19.6 to 1.6 0.52 4.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 100.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.70 4.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 3.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 25.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.46 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 25.2% 22.5% 0.0% 0.0% 19.9% 20.7% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 7.0% 3.1% 1.4% 0.2% 5.1% 5.4% 9.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 0.4% 11.2% 8.8% 0.5% 0.1% 8.3% 8.7% 3.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912019 INVEST 05/27/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##