* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912019 05/26/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 18 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 19 18 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 20 20 19 18 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 6 6 11 13 13 18 24 10 8 11 10 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 7 9 9 6 -2 -1 -2 0 -1 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 293 269 243 226 223 210 205 214 230 292 279 337 260 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.7 29.1 29.2 28.7 28.3 28.0 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 147 145 146 147 148 150 149 153 155 150 144 143 147 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.6 -53.0 -52.8 -52.7 -53.3 -52.6 -53.0 -52.2 -52.7 -52.0 -52.9 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 6 7 7 6 7 6 7 6 8 7 10 700-500 MB RH 76 78 77 75 77 81 83 79 81 81 80 74 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 68 77 82 73 75 80 78 79 93 87 106 71 82 200 MB DIV 68 70 89 83 87 91 106 92 91 80 80 41 59 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 2 -4 -4 LAND (KM) 177 153 143 123 104 -1 -117 -137 -108 -79 -12 58 140 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.3 10.3 10.5 10.7 11.4 12.1 12.8 13.7 14.8 15.7 16.4 17.0 LONG(DEG W) 87.5 87.3 87.2 87.0 86.8 86.1 85.3 84.8 84.5 84.3 84.3 85.2 86.6 STM SPEED (KT) 4 2 2 3 3 6 5 4 6 6 3 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 14 16 16 16 15 15 27 18 10 21 19 17 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):110/ 5 CX,CY: 5/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 487 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 20. 26. 31. 34. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. -15. -14. -14. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -5. -4. 0. 2. 5. 7. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.5 87.5 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912019 INVEST 05/26/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.79 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 19.6 to 1.6 0.57 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.59 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.12 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 21.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.63 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 12.2% 4.9% 2.3% 0.2% 7.7% 6.2% 10.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% Consensus: 0.5% 4.4% 1.7% 0.8% 0.1% 2.6% 2.1% 3.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912019 INVEST 05/26/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##