* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912019 05/25/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 21 21 21 24 27 33 36 39 42 46 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 21 21 21 24 24 26 26 27 27 31 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 19 17 20 25 26 27 27 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 7 6 5 8 13 18 21 16 10 8 11 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 3 7 7 6 0 -1 0 1 -2 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 331 304 291 243 220 213 191 201 208 268 293 326 10 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.2 28.8 28.0 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 146 144 143 143 145 148 150 150 151 155 151 142 143 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.2 -52.5 -52.9 -52.6 -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 -52.0 -52.2 -52.0 -52.4 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 6 6 7 7 7 6 7 6 7 6 8 700-500 MB RH 75 77 77 77 76 79 80 81 81 83 84 83 80 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 8 9 8 9 8 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 60 69 81 86 87 86 83 88 94 102 98 102 65 200 MB DIV 45 65 68 80 88 73 99 95 153 114 93 80 72 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 -2 -3 LAND (KM) 198 222 230 230 207 146 38 -70 -135 -130 -137 -77 33 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 10.6 10.4 10.3 10.4 10.7 11.2 11.7 12.3 13.1 14.3 15.2 16.1 LONG(DEG W) 88.1 88.2 88.1 88.0 87.8 87.3 86.4 85.5 84.9 84.7 84.7 85.0 85.9 STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 2 1 2 4 6 4 4 6 6 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 13 13 13 14 14 14 14 20 30 6 4 11 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):230/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 657 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 19. 26. 30. 34. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -13. -12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 4. 7. 13. 16. 19. 22. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.8 88.1 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912019 INVEST 05/25/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.77 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 19.6 to 1.6 0.70 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.54 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.50 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 16.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.89 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.86 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.7% 29.4% 14.8% 8.0% 1.5% 15.1% 5.9% 13.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 1.8% Consensus: 0.9% 10.0% 5.0% 2.7% 0.5% 5.1% 2.1% 4.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912019 INVEST 05/25/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##