* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912019 05/25/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 23 25 26 27 30 35 38 41 41 46 51 V (KT) LAND 20 22 23 25 26 27 30 30 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 22 22 21 18 23 26 26 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 10 9 7 11 15 20 21 14 6 9 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -1 3 7 5 6 0 0 -1 0 -3 1 SHEAR DIR 333 321 296 287 264 222 212 196 204 204 213 254 338 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.7 28.9 28.0 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 148 146 146 145 143 147 149 149 148 149 152 142 139 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.6 -52.3 -52.6 -52.8 -52.5 -53.2 -52.5 -53.1 -52.1 -52.7 -52.0 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 7 6 8 6 8 6 7 6 7 6 700-500 MB RH 75 74 76 77 74 76 77 80 78 83 83 84 83 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 7 8 8 9 9 8 8 5 6 7 850 MB ENV VOR 65 60 67 80 85 86 84 94 98 104 98 87 70 200 MB DIV 55 58 55 74 96 96 73 84 112 111 106 112 46 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 -2 LAND (KM) 143 166 174 190 198 174 97 -11 -95 -173 -173 -119 -25 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.3 11.2 11.0 10.9 11.1 11.5 12.0 12.3 12.8 13.8 14.8 15.6 LONG(DEG W) 88.0 88.2 88.2 88.2 88.2 88.1 87.5 86.6 85.8 85.3 85.1 85.2 85.7 STM SPEED (KT) 3 1 1 1 0 2 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 14 21 29 4 3 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 694 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 19. 26. 30. 34. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. -2. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -10. -12. -12. -13. -13. -12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -1. 0. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 15. 18. 21. 21. 26. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.4 88.0 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912019 INVEST 05/25/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.78 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 19.6 to 1.6 0.59 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.53 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 28.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.84 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.0% 31.3% 15.6% 8.4% 3.0% 14.8% 17.7% 23.7% Bayesian: 0.2% 7.7% 2.3% 0.7% 0.1% 2.7% 3.8% 1.0% Consensus: 1.4% 13.0% 6.0% 3.0% 1.1% 5.8% 7.2% 8.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912019 INVEST 05/25/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##