* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912019 05/25/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 26 27 28 30 35 37 44 43 47 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 26 27 25 26 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 21 21 19 24 26 26 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 4 6 7 7 10 16 18 18 14 12 7 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 0 1 0 5 2 0 0 -2 0 2 2 SHEAR DIR 203 286 309 304 275 230 217 206 194 187 192 240 317 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.5 29.3 29.3 29.1 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 149 149 150 149 150 152 157 155 155 154 146 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.9 -53.2 -52.8 -52.6 -53.4 -52.8 -53.4 -52.6 -53.2 -52.1 -52.8 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 8 7 6 7 6 7 6 7 6 8 700-500 MB RH 78 77 77 76 77 79 78 81 83 83 84 84 85 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 9 9 9 7 7 7 7 10 6 7 850 MB ENV VOR 74 77 71 68 78 92 80 81 86 82 99 105 105 200 MB DIV 118 101 94 91 97 89 83 87 114 118 130 109 93 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 1 -2 1 LAND (KM) 75 91 83 75 60 38 -9 -78 -93 -29 -32 -68 -72 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.2 11.2 11.2 11.2 11.2 11.4 11.7 11.9 12.3 13.0 14.1 15.2 LONG(DEG W) 87.0 87.1 87.0 86.9 86.7 86.4 86.0 85.4 84.6 83.9 83.8 84.1 84.6 STM SPEED (KT) 2 0 1 1 2 2 3 4 4 3 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 15 14 15 15 15 15 16 21 27 42 38 32 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):235/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 5. 12. 20. 26. 31. 35. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. 0. -1. 0. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 2. -3. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 15. 17. 24. 23. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.3 87.0 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912019 INVEST 05/25/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.81 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 19.6 to 1.6 0.81 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 100.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.70 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.12 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 22.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.52 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.9% 28.5% 16.5% 9.1% 2.6% 23.5% 38.0% 30.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 5.5% 3.6% 1.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 2.6% Consensus: 1.3% 11.3% 6.7% 3.5% 1.0% 7.8% 12.8% 10.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912019 INVEST 05/25/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##