* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912019 05/24/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 25 26 28 28 29 31 32 36 40 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 25 24 25 26 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 21 20 24 26 26 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 2 3 6 8 11 16 17 16 13 9 12 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 0 2 4 4 6 3 0 -1 -4 1 2 SHEAR DIR 286 239 255 277 283 248 236 228 211 223 234 240 248 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.9 29.1 28.9 28.1 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 151 148 150 150 151 150 149 148 150 152 150 143 144 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.2 -53.0 -53.2 -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -52.6 -52.2 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 6 8 6 7 6 7 6 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 79 79 77 77 76 80 79 79 79 83 82 81 81 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 11 12 11 12 9 8 7 6 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 81 86 84 82 79 99 103 114 111 106 119 117 137 200 MB DIV 125 116 100 96 96 74 99 101 106 78 76 125 110 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 2 0 -1 0 LAND (KM) 59 67 59 52 29 -18 -72 -127 -205 -162 -162 -139 -50 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.6 11.8 12.3 12.8 13.3 13.5 14.0 14.6 15.3 LONG(DEG W) 87.0 87.1 87.0 86.9 86.7 86.3 86.1 85.9 85.4 85.0 85.0 85.4 86.4 STM SPEED (KT) 2 0 1 2 2 2 3 3 3 2 3 5 7 HEAT CONTENT 15 14 15 15 15 16 18 16 17 4 4 5 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 5. 12. 20. 26. 31. 34. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -12. -14. -16. -17. -18. -17. -17. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 2. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 9. 11. 12. 16. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.5 87.0 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912019 INVEST 05/24/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.82 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.3 19.6 to 1.6 0.85 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 106.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.74 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.12 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 22.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.78 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.2% 42.4% 27.7% 16.5% 4.1% 33.4% 34.4% 24.5% Bayesian: 0.6% 9.6% 7.6% 3.2% 0.2% 1.0% 1.9% 2.8% Consensus: 2.6% 17.3% 11.8% 6.6% 1.4% 11.5% 12.1% 9.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912019 INVEST 05/24/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##