* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912019 05/23/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 18 18 18 19 21 26 32 34 35 37 39 V (KT) LAND 20 23 24 25 26 26 27 27 33 30 28 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 20 23 24 25 26 26 27 27 29 25 26 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 15 13 14 12 11 11 11 11 20 21 19 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -4 -5 -5 -4 0 0 2 -1 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 335 299 294 293 294 281 295 238 224 199 186 193 198 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 154 152 149 151 152 151 152 153 154 154 157 157 158 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.6 -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 -52.2 -52.9 -52.5 -53.1 -52.5 -53.3 -52.4 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 7 7 8 6 7 6 7 6 7 6 700-500 MB RH 69 69 73 75 75 77 76 77 77 79 80 82 83 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 6 7 6 7 8 9 8 8 7 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 60 62 75 76 65 79 82 103 101 100 95 107 101 200 MB DIV 25 49 68 69 78 92 85 100 108 133 133 164 176 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 1 2 0 LAND (KM) -41 -79 -79 -79 -72 -65 -34 -9 7 -22 -98 -56 -58 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.1 12.1 12.1 12.2 12.3 12.0 11.6 11.2 11.1 11.1 11.3 11.8 LONG(DEG W) 86.1 85.8 85.8 85.8 86.0 86.2 86.3 86.2 86.0 85.6 84.9 84.4 84.3 STM SPEED (KT) 4 2 0 1 2 1 1 3 2 3 3 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 18 22 22 22 20 19 18 18 18 19 11 41 45 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 5 CX,CY: 5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 474 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 20. 26. 31. 35. 38. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -13. -13. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 6. 12. 14. 15. 17. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.9 86.1 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912019 INVEST 05/23/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.84 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 19.6 to 1.6 0.37 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.48 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.17 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 40.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.27 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 7.2% 1.8% 0.8% 0.7% 2.8% 28.0% 18.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 2.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.6% 1.0% Consensus: 0.2% 3.3% 0.8% 0.3% 0.3% 1.0% 9.5% 6.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912019 INVEST 05/23/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##