* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912019 05/23/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 36 40 44 46 47 45 42 40 40 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 36 40 32 29 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 32 34 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 10 7 5 9 8 12 18 22 27 29 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 -1 -3 -4 -4 2 3 2 1 2 6 SHEAR DIR 41 42 33 20 338 338 291 294 273 249 224 206 191 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 151 150 148 149 149 149 148 148 148 148 146 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.8 -53.0 -52.5 -52.2 -52.8 -52.3 -53.0 -52.5 -53.3 -52.4 -52.9 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 9 8 7 7 6 8 7 7 6 7 700-500 MB RH 70 70 69 70 73 76 77 78 76 74 78 80 82 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 73 70 65 63 75 70 68 75 98 104 121 119 118 200 MB DIV 72 70 58 61 72 71 103 78 76 69 102 117 168 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 129 107 83 53 30 6 -41 -64 -95 -87 -95 -71 -116 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.0 11.1 11.2 11.3 11.5 11.9 12.0 12.2 12.2 12.2 12.0 11.9 LONG(DEG W) 87.4 87.1 86.9 86.6 86.4 86.3 86.1 85.9 85.7 85.8 85.7 85.8 85.1 STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 3 3 2 2 1 2 0 0 0 2 4 HEAT CONTENT 16 16 16 16 17 17 21 22 23 23 23 22 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):105/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 7.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 9. 17. 24. 29. 33. 35. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 0. -3. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 11. 15. 19. 21. 22. 20. 17. 15. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.0 87.4 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912019 INVEST 05/23/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.75 6.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.56 4.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.14 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.53 3.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 4.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 59.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.82 -4.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.52 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 24.2% 21.3% 0.0% 0.0% 18.2% 20.6% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 11.9% 4.8% 2.3% 0.8% 6.8% 43.7% 38.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 7.6% 2.2% 0.8% 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% 6.9% Consensus: 0.4% 14.6% 9.4% 1.0% 0.3% 8.5% 21.5% 15.3% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 10.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912019 INVEST 05/23/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX