* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912019 05/20/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 23 24 31 37 42 52 57 62 61 59 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 23 24 31 37 42 52 57 62 61 59 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 21 22 24 27 31 36 41 46 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 5 5 4 2 1 4 3 4 6 5 11 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 7 4 2 0 -2 -4 -7 -1 0 0 -3 -6 SHEAR DIR 78 109 149 162 171 79 123 293 10 37 344 312 287 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.2 28.9 28.8 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.5 28.2 28.5 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 154 151 150 146 148 148 148 146 143 146 148 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -52.9 -52.6 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -53.0 -52.7 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 9 8 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 63 65 67 71 72 73 77 74 78 75 73 70 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 7 6 6 7 6 6 6 5 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 55 55 57 61 57 44 52 53 67 49 45 39 52 200 MB DIV 61 55 67 79 78 51 80 82 87 59 49 43 28 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 428 454 451 456 444 340 236 172 139 143 130 113 143 LAT (DEG N) 9.8 9.5 9.4 9.2 9.1 9.1 9.2 9.5 9.8 10.3 10.9 11.4 11.4 LONG(DEG W) 91.0 90.9 90.6 90.2 89.8 88.8 87.8 87.3 87.1 87.2 87.3 87.6 88.0 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 4 4 5 5 4 2 2 3 3 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 14 13 13 13 13 17 24 27 25 20 16 14 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 742 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 4.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -2. 2. 9. 18. 26. 32. 36. 39. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 1. 1. 2. 3. 1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -8. -7. -8. -11. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 4. 11. 17. 22. 32. 37. 42. 41. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 9.8 91.0 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912019 INVEST 05/20/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.89 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.84 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.11 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.53 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 50.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.83 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.38 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.5% 18.1% 15.1% 7.6% 0.6% 25.9% 2.4% 26.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 6.2% 5.1% 2.6% 0.2% 8.6% 0.8% 8.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912019 INVEST 05/20/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX