* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912019 05/19/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 30 31 34 37 42 49 53 56 58 60 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 30 31 34 37 42 49 53 56 58 60 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 30 32 32 31 30 30 31 33 35 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 4 5 6 4 4 2 6 5 7 8 10 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 1 3 5 3 2 -2 1 -1 -1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 150 195 222 247 283 294 268 338 352 355 321 345 45 SST (C) 29.9 29.7 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.8 29.4 28.5 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 161 159 156 157 158 160 156 146 144 142 139 141 144 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -52.7 -53.2 -52.7 -53.2 -52.5 -53.0 -52.0 -52.9 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 10 9 7 8 6 7 6 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 67 66 65 63 66 69 72 73 74 76 75 75 78 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 44 55 52 51 52 50 61 53 53 48 44 34 37 200 MB DIV 43 40 42 56 57 54 60 59 78 88 101 82 77 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 278 271 300 333 379 465 493 519 478 433 413 423 428 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 11.9 11.5 11.1 10.6 9.7 9.2 8.7 8.5 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.7 LONG(DEG W) 93.0 92.6 92.3 92.1 91.9 91.6 91.1 90.5 89.9 89.4 89.2 89.3 89.5 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 0 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 32 31 26 22 19 16 15 13 14 15 15 15 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):110/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 655 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 10.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -2. 2. 8. 16. 24. 30. 33. 35. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -10. -11. -11. -10. -11. -11. -9. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 6. 9. 12. 17. 24. 28. 31. 33. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.0 93.0 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912019 INVEST 05/19/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 141.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.92 8.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.82 7.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.23 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.43 3.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 4.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 57.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.83 -4.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.74 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 2.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 42% is 7.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 35.1% 27.6% 0.0% 0.0% 23.0% 42.2% 0.0% Logistic: 11.5% 41.0% 46.3% 24.0% 7.5% 50.5% 46.7% 82.9% Bayesian: 0.8% 30.4% 12.5% 4.1% 0.5% 13.8% 17.0% 3.5% Consensus: 4.1% 35.5% 28.8% 9.4% 2.7% 29.1% 35.3% 28.8% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912019 INVEST 05/19/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX