* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912019 05/18/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 29 32 37 42 48 54 58 61 62 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 29 32 37 42 48 54 58 61 62 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 30 31 32 31 30 30 30 31 32 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 5 6 6 6 6 4 3 8 4 4 5 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 0 -1 3 2 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 168 198 194 207 247 335 325 322 339 12 336 355 26 SST (C) 30.1 30.3 30.1 29.7 29.4 29.7 29.9 29.6 28.6 28.0 28.1 28.4 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 164 165 163 160 157 159 161 158 147 141 141 144 146 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -52.4 -52.8 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 10 9 10 9 8 7 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 68 67 65 63 61 67 70 75 72 75 74 77 77 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 41 49 62 59 54 55 55 63 47 45 42 55 46 200 MB DIV 38 29 36 37 61 56 69 71 64 110 125 133 85 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 260 218 234 271 319 428 495 556 573 567 532 504 505 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.6 12.3 11.9 11.4 10.3 9.6 8.9 8.5 8.3 8.4 8.6 8.8 LONG(DEG W) 93.4 93.0 92.7 92.6 92.5 92.4 92.2 91.8 91.3 90.7 90.4 90.2 90.4 STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 4 5 6 5 4 4 3 2 1 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 35 38 36 31 25 19 18 17 15 14 13 13 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 7 CX,CY: 5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 9.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. 1. 8. 16. 25. 30. 34. 36. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 12. 17. 23. 29. 33. 36. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.4 93.4 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912019 INVEST 05/18/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 143.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.95 8.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.78 6.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.30 2.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.39 3.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 4.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 58.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.82 -4.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.54 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 37% is 6.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 29.4% 26.8% 0.0% 0.0% 22.8% 36.8% 0.0% Logistic: 17.0% 52.1% 58.9% 31.3% 18.9% 55.8% 44.4% 80.2% Bayesian: 1.0% 29.7% 7.3% 1.6% 1.1% 26.3% 53.9% 3.8% Consensus: 6.0% 37.1% 31.0% 11.0% 6.7% 35.0% 45.1% 28.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912019 INVEST 05/18/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX